Week 5: Exponential smoothing

Week 5

Introduce exponential smoothing models for level and trend, and connect the methods to ETS notation.

Quiz highlight

Week 5 quiz

Due Wednesday 01 April

Quiz links switch with your selected course, so this stays as the main weekly action.

Open ETF3231 quizOpen ETF5231 quiz
Prepare before class

Read Sections 8.1 to 8.4 of FPP3 and review the difference between smoothing methods and their ETS models.

Seminar and workshop

Wednesday 01 April · Seminar 3:00pm to 3:50pm, workshop 4:00pm to 4:50pm · Building K Level 3, K321

Focus
  • Simple exponential smoothing
  • Trend methods and ETS notation
  • Interpreting level and trend components
Assessment

Week 5 quiz on Wednesday 01 April · IA2 on Thursday 02 April

Week 5 quiz on Wednesday 01 April · IA2 on Thursday 02 April

Workshop ActivitiesSlides PDFFPP3 Chapter 8Recordings

What you will learn this week

  • Simple exponential smoothing and corresponding ETS models
  • Methods with trend and corresponding ETS models
  • ETS model notation

Pre-class activities

Read Sections 8.1-8.4 of the textbook and watch all embedded videos

Slides for seminar

Download pdf

Seminar Code

week5-code.R

Tutorial exercises

NoteTutorial Learning Objectives
  1. Implement and interpret exponential smoothing models.
    • Able to estimate simple exponential smoothing (SES) model, interpret the smoothing parameters, and generate point and interval forecasts.
  2. Develop custom forecasting functions.
    • Write and test user-defined functions to perform simple exponential smoothing, compare their outputs with built-in functions (like ETS()), and understand the computational steps involved.
  3. Optimise model parameters using numerical methods.
    • Modify exponential smoothing functions to compute an error measure and use numerical optimisation methods to determine the optimal smoothing parameter
    • Able to compare results with the automatic ETS estimation.

Assignments

  • IA2 is due on Thursday 02 April.
  • GA2 is due on Tuesday 14 April.
  • IA3 is due on Friday 24 April.

Weekly quiz